História engraçada. Eu costumava usar o exemplo da Cisco, mas este tb é suficientemente interessante para eu adoptar no futuro quando digo que o facto de as empresas terem o comportamento esperado e de sucesso não significa que as respectivas acções vão subir
Why Good News Can Be Bad: The Curious Case of Celera Genomics
Stock market behavior can often seem irrational, especially when good news triggers unexpected downturns. A classic example of this paradox is the case of Celera Genomics, a company that played a crucial role in sequencing the human genome. What should have been a triumph for humanity and the company became a cautionary tale for investors about the dangers of overhyped expectations and speculative bubbles.
The Rise of Celera Genomics: A Biotechnology Marvel
In September 1999, Celera Genomics embarked on one of the most ambitious scientific endeavors of its time—sequencing the human genome. This breakthrough was monumental, as it promised to unlock the blueprint of human life, opening doors to personalized medicine and the treatment of numerous genetic diseases. Investors saw the potential and flocked to the stock, driving it from $17.41 in late 1999 to a high of $244 by early 2000, amidst a wave of anticipation.
But despite the revolutionary nature of the science, Celera’s stock was riding a wave of speculative enthusiasm, rather than solid fundamentals. As the company progressed toward sequencing the genome, the excitement reached a fever pitch.
The Unexpected Fall: When Anticipation Outpaces Reality
On June 26, 2000, Celera Genomics made history when it announced, in a press conference attended by U.S. President George W. Bush and U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair, that it had successfully sequenced the human genome. This should have marked the peak of the company’s success, but instead, the stock dropped dramatically—falling 10.2% on the day of the announcement, and another 12.7% the following day.
The drop was not due to any failure on Celera’s part—far from it. The company had achieved a scientific feat previously thought to be decades away. So why the sudden crash?
The Thrill Is Gone: Why Stocks Plunge After Good News
The answer lies in one of the more frustrating realities of stock market behavior: anticipation can be more valuable than reality. When investors buy into a company based on future expectations, the journey to that future can inflate stock prices beyond any reasonable valuation. Once the anticipated event occurs, whether it's good news or not, there is nothing left for investors to look forward to. The thrill is gone, and the emotional high evaporates, leaving investors to reassess whether they want to remain invested.
In Celera's case, the anticipation of sequencing the human genome created a speculative bubble. Once the goal was achieved, the stock price collapsed because there was no longer an immediate, emotionally charged narrative to sustain the inflated value. The company’s success didn’t justify the sky-high prices that speculation had driven.
The Long-Term Impact: A Lesson in Market Hype
By 2006, Celera’s stock, traded under its parent company, Applera Corp., had fallen to around $14—a staggering 90% below its all-time high. This serves as a stark reminder of the dangers of buying into a company whose stock price is driven more by hype than by underlying business fundamentals.
While Celera’s scientific achievements were undeniable, its greatest asset in the eyes of many investors was not its groundbreaking technology but rather the speculation surrounding it.
When that speculation fizzled, so did the stock.
