Como isto tem imensos temas e é supergrande decidi partir em duas partes (como está no indíce e como estou a ler)
Economic Outlook
"Policy has in fact been a key driver of conditions globally, as 2022 has proven to be one of the most rapidly evolving economic and financial market environments in recent history. Figure I-1 shows that the current and expected pace of change in monetary policy is unlike anything we’ve seen in the last 30 years, particularly on a globally coordinated scale."
"The action taken, and likely to be taken in the months ahead, by central banks reflects an effort to combat multidecade high inflation that has proven more persistent and broad-based. Supply demand imbalances linger in many sectors as global supply chains have yet to fully recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, and as demand is supported by strong household and business balance sheets buoyed by pandemic-era stimulus."
"Global conditions today and those that are expected to materialize in the coming months are similar to conditions that have signaled global recessions in the past."
"Today, policymakers face a threat from global inflation brought on by a combination of a strong post-COVID recovery, lingering supply-chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, and overly accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. In response, monetary policy has begun to swing toward restrictive conditions, much as it did during the 1980s "
"First, rather than double-digit inflation rising ever higher and on the back of rising inflation expectations and wages, inflation expectations have largely stayed contained, particularly those that look out over longer periods "
United States: A narrow path gets narrower
Euro area: The European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to tighten despite recession
"The ECB will be concerned about the stickiness of inflation, particularly in the services component, amid a still-tight labor market. Indeed, the unemployment rate is at a record low 6.5% (as of October 2022), wage growth has increased to 4% year-over-year compared with a pre-pandemic average of 2%,5 and there is tentative evidence that high inflation is now flowing through to longer-term inflation expectations"
Emerging markets: Headline growth resilience meets underlying economic divergence
"The story of emerging markets (EM) in 2022 has been one of remarkable resilience (Figure I-28a) despite myriad macroeconomic shocks. Although food and energy prices rose, financial conditions tightened significantly, and Chinese growth disappointed, EM growth, foreign exchange, and inflation have not underperformed developed markets. However, the relative headline resilience masks the regional divergence (Figure I-28b)."
Este foi o economic outllok. Quando ler o market outlook, caso seja interessante faço outro post destes!!