Discussão Sobre Mercados

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[Virtua]

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[Alex]

Na próxima semana há mais entretenimento...

WASHINGTON/WEST PALM BEACH, Florida, April 12 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's administration granted exclusions from steep reciprocal tariffs to smartphones, computers and some other electronics imported largely from China, providing a big break to tech companies like Apple that rely on imported products.
In a notice to shippers, opens new tab, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency published a list of tariff codes excluded from the import taxes. The exclusions are retroactive to 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) on April 5.
The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here.
The U.S. CBP listed 20 product categories, including the broad 8471 code for all computers, laptops, disc drives and automatic data processing. It also included semiconductor devices, equipment, memory chips and flat panel displays.
The notice did not provide an explanation for the move, but the late-night exclusion provides welcome relief to major technology firms such as Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab, Dell Technologies (DELL.N), opens new tab and many other importers.
Trump's action also excludes the specified electronics from his 10% "baseline" tariffs on goods from most countries other than China, easing import costs for semiconductors from Taiwan and Apple iPhones produced in India.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives called the announcement "the most bullish news we could have heard this weekend."
"There is still clear uncertainty and volatility ahead with these China negotiations.... Big Tech firms like Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft and the broader tech industry can breathe a huge sigh of relief this weekend into Monday," Ives said in an industry note.
Many tech company CEOs have embraced Trump as he begins his second term, attending his January 20 inauguration in Washington and celebrating with him afterward. Apple CEO Tim Cook hosted a pre-inaugural ball and has visited Trump at his home in Florida.
For the Chinese imports, the exclusion only applies to Trump's reciprocal tariffs, which climbed to 125% this week, according to a White House official. Trump's prior 20% duties on all Chinese imports that he said were related to the U.S. fentanyl crisis remain in place.
But the official said Trump will launch a new national security trade investigation into semiconductors soon that could lead to other new tariffs.
White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement that Trump has made clear the U.S. cannot rely on China to manufacture critical technologies such as semiconductors, chips, smartphones and laptops.
But she said that at Trump's direction, major tech firms, including Apple and chipmakers Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab and Taiwan Semiconductor (2330.TW), opens new tab "are hustling to onshore their manufacturing in the United States as soon as possible."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-excl ... 025-04-12/

Eheheh... alguém lhe explicou que com as taxas impostas aos produtos vindos da China as consequências para as empresas e consumidores eram terríveis...

EUA -0 China-1

[Virtua]

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[Alpha]

VIX no primeiro mandato de Trump:

[Virtua]

[Joseba]

Muito boa partilha.

E o final é a linha ténue que eu tenho sempre algum receio, os saldos transformarem se em uma recessão que traga desemprego em massa e obrigue a vender os fundos para sobreviver... (um pouco como o lembrete/raspanete do Brad Pitt no filme The Big Short ao Charlie e ao Jamie ao saírem de Las Vegas....)

Enganam-se se pensarem que as pessoas antigamente eram "burras" por não investir no crash. Quem leu The Great Depression: A Diary by Benjamin Roth apercebe-se que é uma mistura de não haver dinheiro devido ao desemprego e estado da economia e/ou quem o tinha foi investindo/reforçando ao longo da queda.

[Alpha]

[Alex]

Entretanto a BTC está cair, normalmente costuma ser um "indicador" de como vão abrir os mercados no dia seguinte, para já o mais provável é a Europa abrir no vermelho mas tendo em conta a situação actual, qualquer msg/noticia muda tudo de pernas para o ar!
Nota, isto é um palpite, não fiz nenhum estudo estatístico que confirme a ligação entre a Bitcoin e os mercados de ações, mas nos últimos tempos tem sido mais ou menos certo.

[Alpha]

[Alex]

Afinal a suspensão das tarifas do smartphones e computadores não é bem com disseram na 6ª feira....
Admirados?!?!
Eu não.

WASHINGTON/WEST PALM BEACH, Florida, April 13 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday bore down on his administration's latest message that the exclusion of smartphones and computers from his reciprocal tariffs on China will be short-lived, pledging a national security trade investigation into the semiconductor sector.
Those electronics "are just moving to a different Tariff 'bucket,'" Trump said in a social media post. "We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations."

https://www.reuters.com/markets/trump-p ... 025-04-13/

[Alpha]

[Virtua]

Positivos!!

[Virtua]

Rising Turbulence in Debt and Bond Markets Signals Broader Financial Stress

A wave of volatility is rippling through U.S. financial markets, raising red flags for corporate debt and fixed-income investors. With Treasury yields bouncing unexpectedly and high-yield bond protections spiking, Wall Street is bracing for a broader shakeout that could extend beyond markets into the real economy.

At the core of the turmoil is a reversal in typical investor behavior. Instead of fleeing to the safety of government bonds and pushing yields down, rising inflation fears and talk of stagflation are driving yields higher—leaving investors with fewer traditional havens. This unease has sparked record activity in put options tied to high-yield bond ETFs, with Cboe data showing an all-time high in recent sessions. At the same time, key debt indicators like Barclays’ bond capitulation signal have surged to 91%, suggesting markets are approaching panic-selling territory.

Investment outflows are amplifying the pressure. On April 4 alone, loan ETFs saw $1.3 billion in outflows—the largest single-day withdrawal on record—while popular funds from Invesco, Janus Henderson, and Eldridge Capital have posted noticeable declines. Market liquidity has also deteriorated, especially in futures linked to 10-year Treasurys and the S&P 500, reminiscent of stress levels last seen during the 2020 Covid crash.

The confluence of weaker liquidity, investor withdrawals, and growing bankruptcy concerns is stoking fears of a deeper downturn. As portfolio manager Ben Inker of GMO noted, the uncertainty itself is crippling business decision-making, compounding the risk of economic fallout.

Conclusion:

The current stress in corporate debt and bond markets is not just a technical market issue—it reflects mounting concern about economic stability, investor confidence, and systemic risk. With signals nearing full capitulation, the coming weeks could prove pivotal for both markets and the broader U.S. economy.

[Alpha]